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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Chions
Chions
L. Caprioni 60', 43'
E. Alcides 22'
P. Perez 15'
3/16/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 27Stadio Zugni Tauro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi52%
×Draw24%
Chions24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.72
Chions
1.08

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 59% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 50 away

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.07
Chions
1.84

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw
76%
Dolomiti Bellunesi or Chions
76%
Draw or Chions
48%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
29%
Chions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
82%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
51%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
25%
Chions 1+ goals
66%
Chions 2+ goals
29%
Chions 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
69%
Chions (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chions attack 1.10 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
52%
level
24%
Chions scores more
24%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
P. Perez
22'
E. Alcides
43'
L. Caprioni
60'
L. Caprioni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Chions

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Chions 4-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 16, 2024.

Goals: P. Perez (15'), E. Alcides (22'), L. Caprioni (43', 60').

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro in Feltre.