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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
1/29/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 25Stadio Comunale di Sedico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi42%
×Draw28%
Bassano Virtus29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.26
Bassano Virtus
1.00

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.07
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw
71%
Dolomiti Bellunesi or Bassano Virtus
72%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
58%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
19%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
72%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
36%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
13%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
63%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
26%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
59%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
42%
level
28%
Bassano Virtus scores more
29%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Dolomiti Bellunesi 5–2 Bassano Virtus

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Bassano Virtus 5-2 in Serie D - Girone C on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Sedico in Sedico.