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Dolný Kubín vs Slovan Bratislava II — 2. liga 2019

Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Bratislava II
Slovan Bratislava II
8/12/20232. liga2. liga · Round 3Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dolný Kubín46%
×Draw23%
Slovan Bratislava II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolný Kubín
1.74
Slovan Bratislava II
1.36

Dolný Kubín creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 95 away

creates per match

Dolný Kubín
1.40
Slovan Bratislava II
1.03

allows per match

Dolný Kubín
1.70
Slovan Bratislava II
2.08

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par
Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Slovan Bratislava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw
70%
Dolný Kubín or Slovan Bratislava II
77%
Draw or Slovan Bratislava II
54%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
25%
Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
82%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
52%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
25%
Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals
74%
Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals
39%
Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
61%
Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Slovan Bratislava II away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 1.40 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.74

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.03 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more
46%
level
23%
Slovan Bratislava II scores more
30%

Dolný Kubín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolný Kubín vs Slovan Bratislava II

Slovan Bratislava II beat Dolný Kubín 1-0 in 2. liga on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka in Dolný Kubín.