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Dolný Kubín vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
4/7/20242. liga2. liga · Round 23Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dolný Kubín46%
×Draw24%
Slavoj Trebišov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolný Kubín
1.70
Slavoj Trebišov
1.33

Dolný Kubín creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 69 away

creates per match

Dolný Kubín
1.40
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Dolný Kubín
1.70
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw
70%
Dolný Kubín or Slavoj Trebišov
76%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
54%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
24%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
82%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
51%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
24%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
74%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
38%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
61%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 1.40 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.70

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more
46%
level
24%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
30%

Dolný Kubín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Dolný Kubín 1–2 Slavoj Trebišov

Slavoj Trebišov beat Dolný Kubín 2-1 in 2. liga on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka in Dolný Kubín.