Dolný Kubín 1–4 Pohronie: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Dolný Kubín

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Pohronie

12/4/2023

2. liga · Round 17Umelá Tráva Ružomberok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dolný Kubín40%

×Draw24%

Pohronie35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolný KubínExpected goals in this matchPohronie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.43

Dolný Kubín

1.55

Pohronie

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

1.40

creates per match

1.16

1.70

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dolný Kubín

1.40

Pohronie

1.16

allows per match

Dolný Kubín

1.70

Pohronie

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Pohronie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Pohronie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw

65%

Dolný Kubín or Pohronie

76%

Draw or Pohronie

60%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

20%

Pohronie wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

79%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

46%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

20%

Pohronie 1+ goals

76%

Pohronie 2+ goals

42%

Pohronie 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

53%

Pohronie (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Pohronie away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 1.40 + Pohronie defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Pohronie attack 1.16 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more

40%

level

24%

Pohronie scores more

35%

Dolný Kubín at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff