Dolní Benešov 1–1 Blansko: Result & Stats

Dolní Benešov

FT

1 – 1

Blansko

8/24/2019

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 4Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov37%

×Draw25%

Blansko37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolní BenešovExpected goals in this matchBlansko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

Dolní Benešov

1.39

Blansko

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 77 away

0.80

creates per match

1.17

1.60

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Dolní Benešov

0.80

Blansko

1.17

allows per match

Dolní Benešov

1.60

Blansko

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Blansko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Blansko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw

63%

Dolní Benešov or Blansko

75%

Draw or Blansko

63%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+

17%

Blansko wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals

75%

Dolní Benešov 2+ goals

40%

Dolní Benešov 3+ goals

16%

Blansko 1+ goals

75%

Blansko 2+ goals

40%

Blansko 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)

50%

Blansko (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Blansko away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Blansko defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.39

Blansko attack 1.17 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more

37%

level

25%

Blansko scores more

37%

Dolní Benešov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dolní Benešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff