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Dolní Benešov vs Baník Ostrava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
13:30
Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
3/14/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 11Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov20%
×Draw23%
Baník Ostrava II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
0.97
Baník Ostrava II
1.84

Baník Ostrava II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 65 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Baník Ostrava II
2.08

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Baník Ostrava II
1.14

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Baník Ostrava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
42%
Dolní Benešov or Baník Ostrava II
77%
Draw or Baník Ostrava II
80%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
7%
Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
62%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
25%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
7%
Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
84%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
55%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
25%
Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
20%
level
23%
Baník Ostrava II scores more
58%

Baník Ostrava II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dolní Benešov vs Baník Ostrava II — Match Preview

Dolní Benešov face Baník Ostrava II on March 14, 2021 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dolní Benešov host Baník Ostrava II at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.