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Dollingstown vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
3 – 2
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
4/25/2026League #561League #561

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dollingstown48%
×Draw21%
Moyola Park30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
2.09
Moyola Park
1.63

Dollingstown creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.25
Moyola Park
1.25

allows per match

Dollingstown
2.00
Moyola Park
1.94

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
70%
Dollingstown or Moyola Park
79%
Draw or Moyola Park
52%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
28%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
88%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
62%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
34%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
80%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
48%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
61%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.25 + Moyola Park defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Moyola Park attack 1.25 + Dollingstown defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dollingstown scores more
48%
level
21%
Moyola Park scores more
30%

Dollingstown at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dollingstown vs Moyola Park

Dollingstown beat Moyola Park 3-2 in League #561 on April 25, 2026.