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Dollingstown vs Limavady United — League #561 2026

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
1 – 2
Limavady United
Limavady United
2/7/2023League #561League #561 · Round 10Planters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dollingstown41%
×Draw19%
Limavady United39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
2.38
Limavady United
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.26
Limavady United
2.83

allows per match

Dollingstown
1.84
Limavady United
2.50

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Limavady United+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Limavady United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
61%
Dollingstown or Limavady United
81%
Draw or Limavady United
59%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
24%
Limavady United wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
91%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
68%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
42%
Limavady United 1+ goals
90%
Limavady United 2+ goals
67%
Limavady United 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
51%
Limavady United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

Limavady United away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.26 + Limavady United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Limavady United attack 2.83 + Dollingstown defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dollingstown scores more
41%
level
19%
Limavady United scores more
39%

Dollingstown at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Dollingstown 1–2 Limavady United

Limavady United beat Dollingstown 2-1 in League #561 on February 7, 2023.

The match was played at Planters Park in Lurgan.