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Dollingstown vs Banbridge Town — League #561 2026

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
3 – 1
Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
11/8/2024League #561League #561 · Round 6Planters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dollingstown55%
×Draw19%
Banbridge Town26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
2.54
Banbridge Town
1.72

Dollingstown creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.18
Banbridge Town
1.61

allows per match

Dollingstown
1.82
Banbridge Town
2.89

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Banbridge Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
74%
Dollingstown or Banbridge Town
81%
Draw or Banbridge Town
45%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
35%
Banbridge Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
92%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
72%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
46%
Banbridge Town 1+ goals
82%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
51%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
68%
Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.18 + Banbridge Town defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.54

Banbridge Town attack 1.61 + Dollingstown defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dollingstown scores more
55%
level
19%
Banbridge Town scores more
26%

Dollingstown at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Dollingstown 3–1 Banbridge Town

Dollingstown beat Banbridge Town 3-1 in League #561 on November 8, 2024.

The match was played at Planters Park in Lurgan.