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Dolgoprudny vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
6/4/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dolgoprudny62%
×Draw23%
Znamya Truda15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolgoprudny
1.76
Znamya Truda
0.74

Dolgoprudny creates 138% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 68 away

creates per match

Dolgoprudny
1.93
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Dolgoprudny
0.40
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw
85%
Dolgoprudny or Znamya Truda
77%
Draw or Znamya Truda
38%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
35%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
83%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
52%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
26%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
52%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
17%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
80%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.93 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.76

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more
62%
level
23%
Znamya Truda scores more
15%

Dolgoprudny at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolgoprudny vs Znamya Truda

Dolgoprudny beat Znamya Truda 5-0 in Second League - Group 2 on June 4, 2021.