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Dolgoprudny vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
8/12/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dolgoprudny72%
×Draw20%
Zenit Irkutsk8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolgoprudny
1.88
Zenit Irkutsk
0.45

Dolgoprudny creates 318% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dolgoprudny
1.93
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Dolgoprudny
0.40
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw
92%
Dolgoprudny or Zenit Irkutsk
80%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
28%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
45%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
85%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
56%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
29%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
36%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
8%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
90%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.93 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more
72%
level
20%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
8%

Dolgoprudny at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolgoprudny vs Zenit Irkutsk

Dolgoprudny beat Zenit Irkutsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.