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Dolgoprudny vs Torpedo Vladimir — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
4/6/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dolgoprudny60%
×Draw24%
Torpedo Vladimir16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolgoprudny
1.69
Torpedo Vladimir
0.74

Dolgoprudny creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dolgoprudny
1.93
Torpedo Vladimir
1.08

allows per match

Dolgoprudny
0.40
Torpedo Vladimir
1.44

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par
Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Torpedo Vladimir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw
84%
Dolgoprudny or Torpedo Vladimir
76%
Draw or Torpedo Vladimir
40%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
34%
Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
82%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
50%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
24%
Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
52%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
17%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
79%
Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Torpedo Vladimir away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.93 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.08 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more
60%
level
24%
Torpedo Vladimir scores more
16%

Dolgoprudny at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dolgoprudny 1–0 Torpedo Vladimir

Dolgoprudny beat Torpedo Vladimir 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.