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Dolgoprudny vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Smolensk
Smolensk
5/18/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dolgoprudny70%
×Draw20%
Smolensk10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolgoprudny
1.93
Smolensk
0.56

Dolgoprudny creates 245% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dolgoprudny
1.93
Smolensk
0.73

allows per match

Dolgoprudny
0.40
Smolensk
1.93

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par
Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Smolensk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw
90%
Dolgoprudny or Smolensk
80%
Draw or Smolensk
30%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
44%
Smolensk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
85%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
57%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
30%
Smolensk 1+ goals
43%
Smolensk 2+ goals
11%
Smolensk 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
88%
Smolensk (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.93 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.93

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more
70%
level
20%
Smolensk scores more
10%

Dolgoprudny at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dolgoprudny 2–0 Smolensk

Dolgoprudny beat Smolensk 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.