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Dolgoprudny vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
10/9/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dolgoprudny34%
×Draw28%
Fakel Voronezh38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolgoprudny
1.16
Fakel Voronezh
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Dolgoprudny
1.00
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Dolgoprudny
1.26
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw
62%
Dolgoprudny or Fakel Voronezh
72%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
66%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
14%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
69%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
32%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
11%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
71%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
35%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
48%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.00 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Dolgoprudny defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more
34%
level
28%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
38%

Fakel Voronezh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolgoprudny vs Fakel Voronezh

Dolgoprudny beat Fakel Voronezh 2-0 in First League on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.