Dolgoprudny 2–0 Dinamo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Dolgoprudny

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Moskva II

5/11/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dolgoprudny52%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Moskva II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DolgoprudnyExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.93

Dolgoprudny

1.55

Dinamo Moskva II

0.93

Dolgoprudny creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

1.93

creates per match

1.46

0.40

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Dolgoprudny

1.93

Dinamo Moskva II

1.46

allows per match

Dolgoprudny

0.40

Dinamo Moskva II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw

77%

Dolgoprudny or Dinamo Moskva II

74%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva II

48%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

79%

Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

46%

Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

20%

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals

61%

Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals

24%

Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

70%

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.93 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more

52%

level

26%

Dinamo Moskva II scores more

23%

Dolgoprudny at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff