Dolgoprudny 3–0 Chita: Result & Stats

Dolgoprudny

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chita

8/9/2020

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dolgoprudny74%

×Draw18%

Chita8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DolgoprudnyExpected goals in this matchChita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.55

Dolgoprudny

2.13

Chita

0.55

Dolgoprudny creates 287% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

1.93

creates per match

0.70

0.40

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Dolgoprudny

1.93

Chita

0.70

allows per match

Dolgoprudny

0.40

Chita

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Chita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Chita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw

92%

Dolgoprudny or Chita

82%

Draw or Chita

26%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

49%

Chita wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

88%

Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

63%

Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

35%

Chita 1+ goals

42%

Chita 2+ goals

11%

Chita 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

90%

Chita (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Chita away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.93 + Chita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Chita attack 0.70 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more

74%

level

18%

Chita scores more

8%

Dolgoprudny at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff