Dolgoprudny 0–2 Baltika: Result & Stats

Dolgoprudny

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Baltika

4/15/2022

First League · Round 33Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dolgoprudny28%

×Draw28%

Baltika44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DolgoprudnyExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.31

Dolgoprudny

1.00

Baltika

1.31

Baltika creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 108 away

1.00

creates per match

1.35

1.26

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dolgoprudny

1.00

Baltika

1.35

allows per match

Dolgoprudny

1.26

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw

56%

Dolgoprudny or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

72%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

10%

Baltika wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

63%

Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

26%

Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

8%

Baltika 1+ goals

73%

Baltika 2+ goals

38%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

39%

Baltika (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.00 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Baltika attack 1.35 + Dolgoprudny defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more

28%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

44%

Baltika at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff