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Dodoma Jiji vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
A. Nsata 90+4'
I. Kipagwile 63'
P. P. Kasunda 56'
L. Sabiyanka 76'
B. Ngassa 19'
2/18/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 20Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dodoma Jiji52%
×Draw28%
Tanzania Prisons20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.38
Tanzania Prisons
0.74

Dodoma Jiji creates 86% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.17
Tanzania Prisons
0.66

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.83
Tanzania Prisons
1.59

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
80%
Dodoma Jiji or Tanzania Prisons
72%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
48%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
26%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
75%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
40%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
16%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
52%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
17%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
72%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.17 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.66 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
52%
level
28%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
20%

Dodoma Jiji at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
B. Ngassa
56'
P. P. Kasunda
63'
I. Kipagwile
76'
L. Sabiyanka
90+4'
A. Nsata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dodoma Jiji 3 – 2 Tanzania Prisons

Dodoma Jiji beat Tanzania Prisons 3-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 18, 2025.

Goals: B. Ngassa (19'), P. P. Kasunda (56'), I. Kipagwile (63'), L. Sabiyanka (76'), A. Nsata (90+4').

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.