Dodoma Jiji 1–0 Tabora United: Result & Stats

Dodoma Jiji

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tabora United

H. Mwaterema 90+2'

3/6/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 20Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dodoma Jiji48%

×Draw28%

Tabora United24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dodoma JijiExpected goals in this matchTabora United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.84

Dodoma Jiji

1.33

Tabora United

0.84

Dodoma Jiji creates 58% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

1.03

creates per match

0.83

0.86

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji

1.03

Tabora United

0.83

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji

0.86

Tabora United

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Tabora United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw

76%

Dodoma Jiji or Tabora United

72%

Draw or Tabora United

52%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

23%

Tabora United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

74%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

38%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

15%

Tabora United 1+ goals

57%

Tabora United 2+ goals

21%

Tabora United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

67%

Tabora United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

Tabora United away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.03 + Tabora United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tabora United attack 0.83 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more

48%

level

28%

Tabora United scores more

24%

Dodoma Jiji at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'

H. Mwaterema

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff