Dodoma Jiji 0–1 Simba: Result & Stats

Dodoma Jiji

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Simba

J. C. Ahoua 63'

9/29/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 6Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dodoma Jiji23%

×Draw29%

Simba48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dodoma JijiExpected goals in this matchSimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.29

Dodoma Jiji

0.79

Simba

1.29

Simba creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.17

creates per match

1.75

0.83

allows per match

0.42

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji

1.17

Simba

1.75

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji

0.83

Simba

0.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Simba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw

52%

Dodoma Jiji or Simba

71%

Draw or Simba

77%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

7%

Simba wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

55%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

19%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

5%

Simba 1+ goals

72%

Simba 2+ goals

37%

Simba 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

32%

Simba (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Simba away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.17 + Simba defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.79

Simba attack 1.75 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more

23%

level

29%

Simba scores more

48%

Simba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

J. C. Ahoua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff