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Dodoma Jiji vs Biashara United — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
1 – 1
Biashara United
Biashara United
11/21/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 6Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dodoma Jiji45%
×Draw32%
Biashara United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.10
Biashara United
0.71

Dodoma Jiji creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 51 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.01
Biashara United
0.57

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.85
Biashara United
1.20

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Biashara United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Biashara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
76%
Dodoma Jiji or Biashara United
68%
Draw or Biashara United
55%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
19%
Biashara United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
67%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
30%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
10%
Biashara United 1+ goals
51%
Biashara United 2+ goals
16%
Biashara United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
65%
Biashara United (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.85 · 91 matches

Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.01 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Biashara United attack 0.57 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
45%
level
32%
Biashara United scores more
24%

Dodoma Jiji at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dodoma Jiji vs Biashara United

Dodoma Jiji and Biashara United drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.