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Dock Sud vs Sportivo Italiano — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
1 – 2
Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
G. Oberman 51'
L. Visco 90'
C. Milla 36'
10/3/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 12Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dock Sud43%
×Draw31%
Sportivo Italiano26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.13
Sportivo Italiano
0.82

Dock Sud creates 38% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 95 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Sportivo Italiano
0.88

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Sportivo Italiano
1.04

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Sportivo Italiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
74%
Dock Sud or Sportivo Italiano
69%
Draw or Sportivo Italiano
57%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
18%
Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
68%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
31%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
11%
Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
56%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
20%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
62%
Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Sportivo Italiano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.04 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Sportivo Italiano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sportivo Italiano attack 0.88 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dock Sud scores more
43%
level
31%
Sportivo Italiano scores more
26%

Dock Sud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
C. Milla
51'
G. Oberman
90'
L. Visco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Dock Sud 1–2 Sportivo Italiano

Sportivo Italiano beat Dock Sud 2-1 in Primera C on October 3, 2021.

Goals: C. Milla (36'), G. Oberman (51'), L. Visco (90').

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.