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Dock Sud vs Lujan — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
1 – 1
Lujan
Lujan
2/21/2019Primera CPrimera C · Round 24Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dock Sud40%
×Draw31%
Lujan29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.10
Lujan
0.90

Dock Sud creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 143 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Lujan
1.04

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Lujan
0.99

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Lujan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Lujan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
71%
Dock Sud or Lujan
69%
Draw or Lujan
60%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
16%
Lujan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
67%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
30%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
10%
Lujan 1+ goals
59%
Lujan 2+ goals
23%
Lujan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
58%
Lujan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Lujan away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Lujan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lujan attack 1.04 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dock Sud scores more
40%
level
31%
Lujan scores more
29%

Dock Sud at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dock Sud 1 – 1 Lujan

Dock Sud and Lujan drew 1-1 in Primera C on February 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires).