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Dock Sud vs Leandro N. Alem — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
1 – 0
Leandro N. Alem
Leandro N. Alem
N. Troxler 48'
7/4/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 17Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Dock Sud47%
×Draw29%
Leandro N. Alem24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.25
Leandro N. Alem
0.80

Dock Sud creates 56% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 139 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.22
Leandro N. Alem
0.83

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.77
Leandro N. Alem
1.27

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Leandro N. Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Leandro N. Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
76%
Dock Sud or Leandro N. Alem
71%
Draw or Leandro N. Alem
53%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
21%
Leandro N. Alem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
71%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
36%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
13%
Leandro N. Alem 1+ goals
55%
Leandro N. Alem 2+ goals
19%
Leandro N. Alem 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
66%
Leandro N. Alem (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.77 · 65 matches

Leandro N. Alem away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.27 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.22 + Leandro N. Alem defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leandro N. Alem attack 0.83 + Dock Sud defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dock Sud scores more
47%
level
29%
Leandro N. Alem scores more
24%

Dock Sud at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
N. Troxler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Dock Sud 1–0 Leandro N. Alem

Dock Sud beat Leandro N. Alem 1-0 in Primera C on July 4, 2021.

Goals: N. Troxler (48').

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.