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Dock Sud vs Excursionistas — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
CANC
00:00
Excursionistas
Excursionistas
4/4/2020Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 12Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dock Sud46%
×Draw29%
Excursionistas25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.25
Excursionistas
0.85

Dock Sud creates 47% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Excursionistas
0.95

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Excursionistas
1.30

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Excursionistas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
75%
Dock Sud or Excursionistas
71%
Draw or Excursionistas
54%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
21%
Excursionistas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
71%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
36%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
13%
Excursionistas 1+ goals
57%
Excursionistas 2+ goals
21%
Excursionistas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
64%
Excursionistas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.30 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Excursionistas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Excursionistas attack 0.95 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dock Sud scores more
46%
level
29%
Excursionistas scores more
25%

Dock Sud at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dock Sud face Excursionistas (Primera C)

Primera C returns with Dock Sud hosting Excursionistas. Match starts April 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dock Sud host Excursionistas at Estadio de los Inmigrantes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.