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Dock Sud vs El Porvenir — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
0 – 1
El Porvenir
El Porvenir
8/27/2018Primera CPrimera C · Round 2Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dock Sud49%
×Draw29%
El Porvenir22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.29
El Porvenir
0.77

Dock Sud creates 68% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 121 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
El Porvenir
0.78

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
El Porvenir
1.36

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
El Porvenir+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

El Porvenir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
78%
Dock Sud or El Porvenir
71%
Draw or El Porvenir
51%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
23%
El Porvenir wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
72%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
37%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
14%
El Porvenir 1+ goals
54%
El Porvenir 2+ goals
18%
El Porvenir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
69%
El Porvenir (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

El Porvenir away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + El Porvenir defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

El Porvenir attack 0.78 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dock Sud scores more
49%
level
29%
El Porvenir scores more
22%

Dock Sud at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Dock Sud 0–1 El Porvenir

El Porvenir beat Dock Sud 1-0 in Primera C on August 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires).