Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
8/11/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 9Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Dock Sud41%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Merlo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.21
Deportivo Merlo
0.99

Dock Sud creates 22% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 103 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.18
Deportivo Merlo
0.92

allows per match

Dock Sud
1.06
Deportivo Merlo
1.25

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Deportivo Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
70%
Dock Sud or Deportivo Merlo
71%
Draw or Deportivo Merlo
59%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
70%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
34%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
58%
Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Deportivo Merlo attack 0.92 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dock Sud scores more
41%
level
29%
Deportivo Merlo scores more
30%

Dock Sud at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Dock Sud 0–1 Deportivo Merlo

Deportivo Merlo beat Dock Sud 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.