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Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
3 – 1
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
M. Blanco 90+2', 84'
G. Diaz 22'
L. Romero 39'
3/10/2020Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 8Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dock Sud41%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Merlo29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.15
Deportivo Merlo
0.91

Dock Sud creates 26% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 38 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Deportivo Merlo
1.05

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Deportivo Merlo
1.08

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Deportivo Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
71%
Dock Sud or Deportivo Merlo
70%
Draw or Deportivo Merlo
59%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
68%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
32%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Merlo attack 1.05 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dock Sud scores more
41%
level
30%
Deportivo Merlo scores more
29%

Dock Sud at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
G. Diaz
39'
L. Romero
84'
M. Blanco
90+2'
M. Blanco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo

Dock Sud beat Deportivo Merlo 3-1 in Primera C on March 10, 2020.

Goals: G. Diaz (22'), L. Romero (39'), M. Blanco (84', 90+2').

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.