Dock Sud 1–0 Deportivo Laferrere: Result & Stats

Dock Sud

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Laferrere

D. Orellana 74'

4/1/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 10Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dock Sud42%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Laferrere29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Laferrere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.94

Dock Sud

1.21

Deportivo Laferrere

0.94

Dock Sud creates 29% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

1.15

creates per match

0.93

0.95

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.15

Deportivo Laferrere

0.93

allows per match

Dock Sud

0.95

Deportivo Laferrere

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Deportivo Laferrere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

71%

Dock Sud or Deportivo Laferrere

71%

Draw or Deportivo Laferrere

58%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

70%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

34%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals

61%

Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals

24%

Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

60%

Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

Deportivo Laferrere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.15 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Deportivo Laferrere attack 0.93 + Dock Sud defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dock Sud scores more

42%

level

29%

Deportivo Laferrere scores more

29%

Dock Sud at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

F. Maraia← F. Arébalo

46'

E. Brizuela← S. Formichelli

62'

E. Díaz← A. Velasco

62'

M. Guzmán← Alejandro Ávalos

69'

F. Haberkorn← A. Espeche

74'

D. Orellana

81'

A. Vega← J. Banegas

81'

A. Faillace← F. Ortíz

85'

R. Lobo← S. Martínez

Dock

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Córdoba

46'▲E. Brizuela←▼S. Formichelli

62'▲E. Díaz←▼A. Velasco

62'▲M. Guzmán←▼Alejandro Ávalos

85'▲R. Lobo←▼S. Martínez

Dock Sud substitutes

BrizuelaDíazGuzmánLobo

Manager: G. Szeszurak

13'▲F. Maraia←▼F. Arébalo

69'▲F. Haberkorn←▼A. Espeche

81'▲A. Vega←▼J. Banegas

81'▲A. Faillace←▼F. Ortíz

Deportivo Laferrere substitutes

MaraiaHaberkornVegaFaillace