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Dock Sud vs Deportivo Laferrere — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
0 – 2
Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere
C. Campostrini 56'
G. Fernandez 21' (pen)
8/2/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 2Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dock Sud38%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Laferrere32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.12
Deportivo Laferrere
0.99

Dock Sud creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 99 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Deportivo Laferrere
1.23

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Deportivo Laferrere
1.03

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Deportivo Laferrere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
68%
Dock Sud or Deportivo Laferrere
70%
Draw or Deportivo Laferrere
62%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
67%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
31%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Deportivo Laferrere away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.03 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Deportivo Laferrere attack 1.23 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dock Sud scores more
38%
level
30%
Deportivo Laferrere scores more
32%

Dock Sud at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
G. FernandezPenalty
56'
C. Campostrini
77'
B. Chavez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Dock Sud 0–2 Deportivo Laferrere

Deportivo Laferrere beat Dock Sud 2-0 in Primera C on August 2, 2021.

Goals: G. Fernandez (21' pen), C. Campostrini (56').

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.