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Dock Sud vs Claypole — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
0 – 0
Claypole
Claypole
3/19/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 3Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dock Sud41%
×Draw31%
Claypole28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.11
Claypole
0.86

Dock Sud creates 29% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 106 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Claypole
0.96

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Claypole
1.01

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Claypole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
72%
Dock Sud or Claypole
69%
Draw or Claypole
59%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
17%
Claypole wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
67%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
30%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
10%
Claypole 1+ goals
58%
Claypole 2+ goals
21%
Claypole 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
59%
Claypole (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Claypole away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Claypole defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Claypole attack 0.96 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dock Sud scores more
41%
level
31%
Claypole scores more
28%

Dock Sud at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dock Sud vs Claypole

Dock Sud and Claypole drew 0-0 in Primera C on March 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.