Dobrudzha 4–0 Sportist Svoge: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sportist Svoge

11/30/2024

Second League · Round 19Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Dobrudzha50%

×Draw27%

Sportist Svoge23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchSportist Svoge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.88

Dobrudzha

1.44

Sportist Svoge

0.88

Dobrudzha creates 64% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

1.43

creates per match

0.87

0.89

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Sportist Svoge

0.87

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Sportist Svoge

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Sportist Svoge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

77%

Dobrudzha or Sportist Svoge

73%

Draw or Sportist Svoge

50%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

25%

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

76%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

42%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

18%

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

59%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

22%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

69%

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

50%

level

27%

Sportist Svoge scores more

23%

Dobrudzha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff