Dobrudzha vs Sportist Svoge — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 100+ matches
Dobrudzha50%
Sportist Svoge23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dobrudzha creates 64% more chances
Season form · 100 home / 102 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dobrudzha ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches
Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44
Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Dobrudzha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Montana
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Litex
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Strumska Slava
Lokomotiv Sofia
Pomorie
Chernomorets Balchik
Ludogorets II
Botev Galabovo
Kariana Erden
Pirin Blagoevgrad
NesebarDobrudzhaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dobrudzha host Sportist Svoge on Saturday, 27 February 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Second League: Dobrudzha 1–2 Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge beat Dobrudzha 2-1 in Second League on February 27, 2021.
Goals: Stefan Mitev (25'), D. Hristov (37'), I. Harizanov (77').
The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.