Dobrudzha 1–1 Sozopol: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sozopol

M. Nachev 50'

B. Tyutyukov 34'

12/2/2021

Second League · Round 20Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dobrudzha57%

×Draw25%

Sozopol19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchSozopol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.82

Dobrudzha

1.63

Sozopol

0.82

Dobrudzha creates 99% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 50 away

1.43

creates per match

0.76

0.89

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Sozopol

0.76

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Sozopol

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Sozopol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

81%

Dobrudzha or Sozopol

75%

Draw or Sozopol

43%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

31%

Sozopol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

80%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

48%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

22%

Sozopol 1+ goals

56%

Sozopol 2+ goals

20%

Sozopol 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

75%

Sozopol (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Sozopol away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Sozopol defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sozopol attack 0.76 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

57%

level

25%

Sozopol scores more

19%

Dobrudzha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

30'

32'

32'

34'

35'

35'

50'

55'

V. Gyuzelev← I. Trenchev

59'

D. Dimov← S. Mitev

81'

P. Kyumyurdzhiev← V. Filipov

85'

J. Idrizov

86'

D. Vasilev← D. Stanchev

90+1'

S. Savov

Dobrudzha

Sozopol

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Atanasov

59'▲D. Dimov←▼S. Mitev

86'▲D. Vasilev←▼D. Stanchev

Dobrudzha substitutes

DimovVasilevStoyanovMinchevKovachevTsvetanovIdrizov

Manager: M. Dimov

29'▲S. Savov←▼Y. Nikolov

55'▲V. Gyuzelev←▼I. Trenchev

81'▲P. Kyumyurdzhiev←▼V. Filipov

Sozopol substitutes

SavovGyuzelevKyumyurdzhievBudinovDimovBaevBoyadzhiev

Second League: Dobrudzha 1–1 Sozopol

Dobrudzha and Sozopol drew 1-1 in Second League on December 2, 2021.

Goals: B. Tyutyukov (34'), M. Nachev (50').

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.

Dobrudzha vs Sozopol — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Dobrudzha 1–1 Sozopol