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Dobrudzha vs Slavia Sofia — First League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
7/28/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dobrudzha37%
×Draw28%
Slavia Sofia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.20
Slavia Sofia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 138 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.06
Slavia Sofia
1.00

allows per match

Dobrudzha
1.33
Slavia Sofia
1.34

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Slavia Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
65%
Dobrudzha or Slavia Sofia
72%
Draw or Slavia Sofia
63%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
16%
Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
70%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
34%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
12%
Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
69%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
33%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
51%
Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.06 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Dobrudzha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
37%
level
28%
Slavia Sofia scores more
35%

Dobrudzha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobrudzha vs Slavia Sofia

Dobrudzha beat Slavia Sofia 2-1 in First League on July 28, 2025.

The match was played at Druzhba in Dobrich.