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Dobrudzha vs Ludogorets — First League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
12/4/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dobrudzha23%
×Draw25%
Ludogorets52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
0.95
Ludogorets
1.58

Ludogorets creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 133 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.06
Ludogorets
1.83

allows per match

Dobrudzha
1.33
Ludogorets
0.83

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
48%
Dobrudzha or Ludogorets
75%
Draw or Ludogorets
77%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
8%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
61%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
25%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
7%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
79%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
47%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
30%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.06 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Dobrudzha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
23%
level
25%
Ludogorets scores more
52%

Ludogorets at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dobrudzha 0–2 Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat Dobrudzha 2-0 in First League on December 4, 2025.

The match was played at Druzhba in Dobrich.