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Dobrudzha vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
CANC
00:00
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
8/31/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 4Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha87%
×Draw9%
Lokomotiv Ruse4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
3.14
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.51

Dobrudzha creates 516% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
96%
Dobrudzha or Lokomotiv Ruse
91%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
13%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
70%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
95%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
81%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
9%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
96%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 3.14

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
87%
level
9%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
4%

Dobrudzha at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobrudzha face Lokomotiv Ruse (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Dobrudzha hosting Lokomotiv Ruse. Match starts August 31, 2019. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dobrudzha host Lokomotiv Ruse at Stadion Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.