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Dobrudzha vs Levski Sofia — First League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
4/5/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dobrudzha27%
×Draw27%
Levski Sofia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.00
Levski Sofia
1.37

Levski Sofia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 138 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.06
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Dobrudzha
1.33
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
55%
Dobrudzha or Levski Sofia
73%
Draw or Levski Sofia
73%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
10%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
63%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
26%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
8%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
75%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
40%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
38%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.06 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Dobrudzha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
27%
level
27%
Levski Sofia scores more
45%

Levski Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobrudzha vs Levski Sofia

Dobrudzha and Levski Sofia drew 2-2 in First League on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Druzhba in Dobrich.