Dobrudzha 3–0 Levski Lom: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Levski Lom

10/16/2021

Second League · Round 13Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dobrudzha66%

×Draw22%

Levski Lom12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchLevski Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.60

Dobrudzha

1.79

Levski Lom

0.60

Dobrudzha creates 198% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 13 away

1.43

creates per match

0.31

0.89

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Levski Lom

0.31

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Levski Lom

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Levski Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

88%

Dobrudzha or Levski Lom

78%

Draw or Levski Lom

34%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

39%

Levski Lom wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

83%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

53%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

26%

Levski Lom 1+ goals

45%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

12%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

85%

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.79

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

66%

level

22%

Levski Lom scores more

12%

Dobrudzha at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff