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Dobrudzha vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
CANC
00:00
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
4/14/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dobrudzha47%
×Draw27%
Kariana Erden26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.42
Kariana Erden
0.99

Dobrudzha creates 43% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
74%
Dobrudzha or Kariana Erden
73%
Draw or Kariana Erden
53%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
23%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
76%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
41%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
17%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
63%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
26%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
64%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
47%
level
27%
Kariana Erden scores more
26%

Dobrudzha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobrudzha vs Kariana Erden — Match Preview

Dobrudzha face Kariana Erden on April 14, 2021 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dobrudzha host Kariana Erden at Stadion Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.