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Dobrudzha vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
CANC
00:00
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
11/16/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 13Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha86%
×Draw11%
Kaliakra 19234%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
2.75
Kaliakra 1923
0.41

Dobrudzha creates 571% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
96%
Dobrudzha or Kaliakra 1923
89%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
14%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
66%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
93%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
75%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
51%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
34%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
6%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
96%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.75

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
86%
level
11%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
4%

Dobrudzha at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dobrudzha host Kaliakra 1923

November 16, 2019: Dobrudzha take on Kaliakra 1923 in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dobrudzha host Kaliakra 1923 at Stadion Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.