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Dobrudzha vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
10/19/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dobrudzha27%
×Draw28%
CSKA Sofia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
0.95
CSKA Sofia
1.33

CSKA Sofia creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 133 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.06
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

Dobrudzha
1.33
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
55%
Dobrudzha or CSKA Sofia
72%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
73%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
9%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
61%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
25%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
7%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
74%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
38%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
37%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.06 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Dobrudzha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
27%
level
28%
CSKA Sofia scores more
45%

CSKA Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobrudzha vs CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia beat Dobrudzha 1-0 in First League on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Druzhba in Dobrich.