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Dobrudzha vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
5/3/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 34Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Dobrudzha42%
×Draw27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.34
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.12

Dobrudzha creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 71 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
69%
Dobrudzha or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
73%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
58%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
19%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
74%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
39%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
15%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
67%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
31%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
57%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
42%
level
27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
31%

Dobrudzha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dobrudzha 4–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Dobrudzha beat CSKA 1948 Sofia II 4-1 in Second League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.