Dobrudzha 4–0 Chernomorets Balchik: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chernomorets Balchik

S. Nikolov 83'

P. Yordanov 74'

E. Manev 40'

Y. Andreev 11'

7/15/2023

Second League · Round 1Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dobrudzha57%

×Draw25%

Chernomorets Balchik18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchChernomorets Balchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.74

Dobrudzha

1.56

Chernomorets Balchik

0.74

Dobrudzha creates 111% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 43 away

1.43

creates per match

0.60

0.89

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Chernomorets Balchik

0.60

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Chernomorets Balchik

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

82%

Dobrudzha or Chernomorets Balchik

75%

Draw or Chernomorets Balchik

43%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

30%

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

79%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

46%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

21%

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

52%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

17%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

76%

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

57%

level

25%

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

18%

Dobrudzha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Y. Andreev

40'

E. Manev

46'

P. Tsankov← S. Traykov

46'

P. Georgiev← T. Totev

66'

I. Tomov← I. Tsachev

67'

S. Mitev← Y. Andreev

67'

Vulcano← M. Khodakovksyi

74'

P. Yordanov

76'

S. Statev← E. Manev

77'

78'

I. Minchev← Z. Serafimov

78'

L. Yordanov← P. Yordanov

78'

M. Petkov← D. Bonev

78'

Y. Radev← R. Zlatev

80'

83'

S. Nikolov

Dobrudzha

Chernomorets

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manev

Shokolaro

Gamakov

⚽

▼

Andreev

⚽

▼

Yordanov

▼

Traykov

Manager: D. Bozhilov

46'▲P. Tsankov←▼S. Traykov

67'▲S. Mitev←▼Y. Andreev

76'▲S. Statev←▼E. Manev

78'▲I. Minchev←▼Z. Serafimov

78'▲L. Yordanov←▼P. Yordanov

Dobrudzha substitutes

TsankovMitevStatevMinchevYordanovKovachevVarbanov

Manager: M. Hristov

46'▲P. Georgiev←▼T. Totev

66'▲I. Tomov←▼I. Tsachev

67'▲Vulcano←▼M. Khodakovksyi

78'▲M. Petkov←▼D. Bonev

78'▲Y. Radev←▼R. Zlatev

Chernomorets Balchik substitutes

GeorgievTomovVulcanoPetkovRadevGrigorovKolevYankovDenchev