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Dobrudzha vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
3/16/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dobrudzha48%
×Draw27%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.41
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.92

Dobrudzha creates 53% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.94

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.39

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
75%
Dobrudzha or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
73%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
52%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
24%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
76%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
41%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
17%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
60%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
23%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
66%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
48%
level
27%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
25%

Dobrudzha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobrudzha vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Dobrudzha beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 in Second League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.