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Dobrudzha vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
4/8/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Dobrudzha61%
×Draw24%
Botev Plovdiv II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.68
Botev Plovdiv II
0.71

Dobrudzha creates 137% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Botev Plovdiv II
0.52

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Botev Plovdiv II
1.93

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
84%
Dobrudzha or Botev Plovdiv II
76%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
39%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
34%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
81%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
50%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
24%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
51%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
16%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
80%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
61%
level
24%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
16%

Dobrudzha at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dobrudzha 3–1 Botev Plovdiv II

Dobrudzha beat Botev Plovdiv II 3-1 in Second League on April 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.