Dobrudzha vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Dobrudzha37%
Botev Plovdiv35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 136 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dobrudzha ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches
Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dobrudzha attack 1.06 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22
Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Dobrudzha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Dobrudzha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Dobrudzha substitutes
Head to Head
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Levski SofiaBotev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Dobrudzha host Botev Plovdiv on Tuesday, 14 April 2026 at 17:30. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Dobrudzha vs Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv beat Dobrudzha 3-0 in First League on April 14, 2026.
Goals: N. Soldo (52'), Pedro Igor (74'), Mascote (90').
Botev Plovdiv controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 8.
The match was played at Druzhba in Dobrich.