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Dobrudzha vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
CANC
00:00
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
4/11/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 23Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha94%
×Draw5%
Benkovski Byala1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
3.58
Benkovski Byala
0.22

Dobrudzha creates 1527% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–018%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–14%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (18%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
99%
Dobrudzha or Benkovski Byala
95%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
6%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
82%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
97%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
86%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
67%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
20%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
2%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
99%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.58

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
94%
level
5%
Benkovski Byala scores more
1%

Dobrudzha at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dobrudzha host Benkovski Byala

April 11, 2020: Dobrudzha take on Benkovski Byala in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dobrudzha host Benkovski Byala at Stadion Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.