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Dobrovice vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dobrovice
Dobrovice
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
8/26/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 4Městský stadion FK Dobrovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Dobrovice27%
×Draw23%
Vysoké Mýto50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrovice
1.31
Vysoké Mýto
1.85

Vysoké Mýto creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dobrovice
1.30
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Dobrovice
1.61
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Dobrovice+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrovice ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dobrovice or draw
50%
Dobrovice or Vysoké Mýto
77%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
73%

Winning margin

Dobrovice wins by 2+
12%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Dobrovice 1+ goals
73%
Dobrovice 2+ goals
38%
Dobrovice 3+ goals
14%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
84%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
55%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dobrovice (draw refunded)
35%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrovice at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrovice attack 1.30 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Dobrovice defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dobrovice scores more
27%
level
23%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
50%

Vysoké Mýto at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Dobrovice 0–3 Vysoké Mýto

Vysoké Mýto beat Dobrovice 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion FK Dobrovice in Dobrovice.